2022/7/3  
A COVID resurgence in July? Experts weigh in (2022/06/23)
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  • 英文 English 
    A COVID resurgence in July? Experts weigh in (2022/06/23)

    The epidemic is easing, but we’re not out of the woods yet. The CECC warns that a new COVID wave could sweep Taiwan as early as July, as new omicron subvariants make their way past the borders. One expert believes the new wave will be mild, given Taiwan’s widespread third-dose vaccination coverage. Another expert says Taiwan must pick up the pace on vaccinating older adults and very young children.

    Experts predict that local COVID cases will drop sharply by the end of the month. But the CECC warns that the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants can erupt in local communities at any time, sending case numbers rebounding as early as July.

    Lee Ping-ing
    Infectious diseases physician
    After lockdowns were lifted, some countries saw their case counts repeatedly surge to great heights before falling back down, for a period of up to three months. Some countries were cautious about epidemic prevention. Some countries were more proactive with epidemic prevention, so their case numbers didn’t rise as sharply or fall as quickly. Taiwan’s epidemic curve is more like that. Perhaps our case numbers will rise slightly, but it won’t be a serious surge – we won’t see a sharp rise in case counts.

    Dr. Lee Ping-ing said there was no need to fear a sharp COVID surge. He said Taiwan’s third-dose vaccination coverage was nearly 70%, and that fourth doses were already going out to high-risk groups. He said that even if the two omicron subvariants took hold of Taiwan, case counts would be unlikely to explode.

    Public health expert Hung Tzu-jen suggests stepping up rapid-test screenings at long-term care institutions. In addition, Taiwan should push to vaccinate more older adults and roll out shots to children aged 5 and under, to reduce severe illness and death. Experts are also calling on people to get vaccinated for the flu.

    Lee Ping-ing
    Infectious diseases physician
    In the past two years, Taiwan didn’t have a true influenza epidemic, so this year there could be one. Because we are relaxing epidemic prevention measures, maybe we’ll face the same situation that the southern hemisphere is facing, with COVID and flu epidemics occurring at the same time. The symptoms of both diseases are barely distinguishable, and flu can also become a severe illness for some as well.

    Amid fears of COVID striking during flu season, experts remind the public to practice good hygiene and other disease prevention measures, as they could be key to preventing a viral resurgence.
    中文 Chinese  
    疫情最快7月回升? 李秉穎:應只會輕微上升

    雖然疫情逐步趨緩,公衛專家洪子仁分析,人流增加帶來變數,下周確診人數增減將是關鍵。指揮中心發言人莊人祥參考國外經驗,預估Omicron亞型變異株BA.4和BA.5,可能在七、八月帶來另一波疫情。但醫師李秉穎認為應該只會輕微上升,但怕與流感同時流行,提醒兩種疫苗最好都要打。

    專家預估,本土確診月底有望明顯下降,不過指揮中心莊人祥示警,Omicron BA.4、BA.5可能隨時突破進社區,甚至預估最快七月又有一波回升。

    [[感染科醫師 李秉穎]]
    “解封了以後,有些國家確診數字一下子衝很高,一下子又恢復正常,可能會持續三個月時間,有些國家防疫拘謹,有的國家是因為有些防疫比較積極,上升會比較慢,下降速度也會比較慢,台灣的疫情曲線就比較像後者。說不定疫情會有點輕微上升,但不會是一個很嚴重的、病例確診數字一下子大幅增加的現象。”

    醫師李秉穎要大家別太擔心,第三劑涵蓋率已經接近七成,高風險族群第四季也在開打中,即使亞型變異入侵,疫情也應該不至於暴走。

    公衛專家洪子仁則建議,加強長照機構快篩、繼續提高長者接種率、以及進一步開放五歲以下打疫苗,可以減少重症、死亡。李秉穎還呼籲,流感疫苗千萬不要忘了打。

    [[感染科醫師 李秉穎]]
    “最近兩年台灣都沒有流感真正的流行,所以今年大概一定會流行,因為我們現在已經放鬆這些防疫作法,說不定我們會面臨南半球遇到的一樣。就是變成新冠和流感同時發生流行。流感跟新冠兩個的臨床症狀是幾乎無法分的,而且得到流感的時候,同樣可能會出現重症的情形。”

    就怕新冠跟流感同時流行,專家提醒,繼續保持個人防疫好習慣,也是避免疫情復發的關鍵。
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