2021/1/24  
英文 English 
Markets plunge after Trump says trade deal can wait (2019/12/04)

U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that a trade truce with China may have to wait for more than a year. Speaking at a NATO summit in London, Trump said he's willing to put off signing a trade deal until after the U.S. elections in November 2020. His pessimistic comments sent stocks tumbling in the U.S. and Asia, including Taiwan. Analysts say a protracted trade war would only continue to hurt the global economy. One Taiwan economist predicts that the tariff feud will stretch all the way into 2021.

Donald Trump
U.S. president
I like the idea of waiting till after the election for the China deal.

Trump’s trade deal comments have added to the uncertainty in stock markets. On Wednesday, Taiwan shares closed down at 11,510 points. If the trade war continues, economists say, the global economy will slow.

Jack Huang
Economist
I say that the trade war will continue and the global economy will suffer. The central bank will launch market rescue measures.

Trump has threatened to impose 15% tariffs on US$160 billion of Chinese imports starting Dec. 15. Economist Jack Huang said it’s likely the U.S. will follow through.

Jack Huang
Economist
It’s part of a campaign strategy. The U.S. and China are fighting for hegemony. This war will definitely continue. Although Trump said he’d sign a deal late next year, it’s possible it won’t be signed until 2021, if it helps him in the elections.

The economist sees the trade war raging for at least another year and that will hurt GDP growth in the U.S., China and the eurozone. He also added that the diversion of orders from China to Taiwan could push Taiwan’s economy to grow at a rate of 2.52% in 2020, up from the 2.43% expected for 2019.

中文 Chinese  
貿易戰續打全球經濟悲觀 美股重挫牽台股

美中貿易戰原本就快要達成協議,但現在又添新變數,川普打算明年選後再簽協議,這下不僅美股重挫,還波及到亞股、台股。 就有經濟學家說,貿易戰又進入延長賽,時間恐會加長,不排除還會延續到2021年。

[[美國總統 川普]]
“可能要等到2020年,美國總統大選之後,才會與中國達成貿易協議。”

川普放話,又讓美中貿易關稅協定再添變數,重挫全球股市,台股4日開盤下跌,尾盤拉回,終場以11510點作收。美中貿易戰繼續延長,讓全球經濟很悲觀。

[[經濟學家 黃蔭基]]
“我講的貿易戰一定持續,全球景氣一定受傷,央行一定全力救市。”

首當其衝12月15號,美國針對1600億美 元的中國進口商品、加徵15%的關稅,經濟學家認為可能性高。

[[經濟學家 黃蔭基]]
“是一個選舉策略上的運用,美中之間的一個霸權之爭,這個戰一定會持續下去,儘管他(川普)說明年底才簽,有可能2021年才簽也有可能,只要對他的選情有幫助的話。”

經濟學家預估,不排除戰火將延長一年以上,也讓全球景氣不樂觀,預期美中、歐元區GDP成長下滑。但台灣受到轉單效應, GDP可望將從今年的2.43%,明年提高到2.52%,前景可期。
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