2019/5/27  
Top official says trade war to bring ‘short-term pain and long-term gain’ (2019/05/15)
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  • 英文 English 
    Top official says trade war to bring ‘short-term pain and long-term gain’ (2019/05/15)

    Economists came together today to discuss strategies for Taiwan, as the U.S.-China trade war takes a clear turn for the worse. Washington said Monday that it plans to place high tariffs on nearly all Chinese imports not already subject to duties. The list includes laptops, tablets, and cellphones. This upcoming round of tariffs would threaten Taiwan's vital electronics sector, which for decades has used China as a manufacturing site. Today at a conference held by the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, a top official said Taiwanese firms will feel short-term pain if the new tariffs come to pass. But he said there could be long-term gain if Taiwanese companies can accelerate their shift out of China.

    Today TIER held a conference focusing on the economic outlook amid the U.S.-China trade war. China-based Taiwan companies are about to land squarely in the line of fire. A government official urged them to shift their supply chains to Southeast Asia.

    Kung Ming-hsin
    Minister without portfolio
    Taiwanese businesses can choose any area or country in Southeast Asia to establish a supply chain away from China. If they do that, in the next 20 years, they could play a very important role in the global supply chain.

    But for now, the global economy is bracing for troubles on the trade front over the near term. The International Monetary Fund has warned of slower GDP growth in developed economies this year. The Asian Development Bank has downgraded its GDP forecast for Asia by 0.2 percentage points.

    Chang Chien-yi
    TIER president
    Due to the sluggish global economy, Taiwan may post a slightly low growth rate in the next two, three years. But I think that if we give Taiwan a few years' time, its economic growth will be on track to return to hit 4 to 5% in the next five to 10 years.

    To date, overseas Taiwanese businesses have committed more than NT$300 billion in investment back to Taiwan. Experts say that if capital continues to return, Taiwan could emerge as a winner in the U.S.-China showdown.
    中文 Chinese  
    貿易戰台商轉移基地! 台灣組"非紅供應鏈"

    受美中貿易戰影響,中國紅色供應鏈恐將瓦解,行政院政委龔明鑫今天公開表示,貿易戰對台灣影響是短空長多,因為台商大量回台投資,國內能夠建構新的產業生態,加上目前和東南亞積極談合作,可望建立起"非紅供應鏈"!

    台經院舉辦研討會,全場聚焦"美中貿易戰"情勢,由於中國的紅色供應鏈正逐步瓦解,行政院政委龔明鑫,喊出要和東南亞組"非紅供應鏈"!

    [[行政院政委 龔明鑫]]
    "台商選擇了東南亞哪一個地區,或哪一個國家,建構了這個紅色供應鏈之外的供應鏈的話,將來在未來二十年,可能就可以扮演,全世界非常重要的供應鏈的一個角色"

    不過受美中貿易紛擾,短期內仍會衝擊全球經濟。根據IMF預測,今年先進國家的經濟成長率,將從去年的2.4%下滑到2.1%。亞洲開發銀行也預測,今年亞洲GDP將比前一年下滑0.2個百分點。

    [[台經院院長 張建一]]
    "台灣可能因為國際景氣不好,也許未來兩三年會稍微低一點的成長率,但是我覺得給台灣幾年的時間,它經濟成長的軌跡,未來五年到十年,(GDP) 可以回歸到4%至5%"

    台商回台投資金額,至今已經超過三千億,台灣儲備好能量,提升經濟成長力道,可望打贏這場國際戰!

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