2020/7/11  
James Soong to be the deciding factor in the presidential election (2011/12/26)
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  • 英文 English 
    James Soong to be the deciding factor in the presidential election (2011/12/26)

    With 19 days to go until the presidential election, the pro-independence Taiwan Thinktank has released the latest results from opinion polls. Currently the support rate for Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen differs by only 0.4 percent with Ma holding a slight lead and James Soong trailing far behind. Thinktank analysts say that the key to the election is in how many votes are won by Soong.

    With the election fast approaching, the Taiwan Thinktank has released its latest opinion poll figures. KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou has a support rate of 39.5 percent, with DPP candidate Tsai Ing-wen a close second, at 39.1 percent, while PFP candidate James Soong lags at 11.1 percent. The polls were conducted on Dec. 23 and 24, canvassing opinion from 1,067 adults above the age of 20. The confidence level of the poll is 95 percent and margin of error 3 percent.

    Julian Kuo
    Former DPP legislator
    I believe that if we voted with the current figures, Tsai would win but not by a large margin. The first factor is the shift in James Soong’s votes. The other factor is votes from those who live overseas. But the bigger factor is still Soong.

    Hsu Yung-ming
    Taiwan Thinktank Convener
    According to this, Tsai might be leading by about 3 percent. When Soong ran for Taipei City mayor, in the worst instance, he only received 50,000 votes in Taipei City. If he got 50,000 votes each from Taipei City, New Taipei City, Keelung, Taoyuan, Hsinchu and Miaoli, 50,000 is still very low. The total is only 300,000.

    Hsu and Kuo uniformly believe that negative electioneering tactics and cross-strait policies will not affect the way voters cast their ballot. As the election approaches, Soong’s share of the overall vote and economic issues will be the deciding factors for Ma and Tsai.
    中文 Chinese  
    大選攻防法

    總統大選倒數19天,台灣智庫最新民調出爐,馬蔡支持度39.5%比39.1%,只差距0.4個百分點,宋楚瑜則有11.1%的支持度,前立委郭正亮和學者徐永明分析,如果現在就投票,蔡英文勝算高,而這次大選最關鍵是在宋楚瑜得票高低。

    大選腳步逼近,台灣智庫選情分析,公佈剛出爐的民調,馬英九拿到百分之39.5的支持度,蔡英文也有百分之39.1,宋楚瑜得到百分之11.1,這份在12/23、24日進行的民調,電話抽查全國20歲以上民眾,完成1067份樣本,信心水準95%抽樣誤差3%。

    [[前立委(民) 郭正亮]]
    “我認為如果用這個數字投票,小英會贏,可是贏得也不多,第一個是宋的票的移動,另一個是海外回來,影響最大的還是宋的票”

    [[台灣智庫召集人 徐永明]]
    “蔡英文在這上面,可能會有3%的領先,宋楚瑜就算他上次選台北市長,最慘的狀況,只在台北市拿五萬票,北北基桃竹苗合起來,每個地方都拿五萬票,五萬是非常低的,就三十萬”

    他們一致認為,負面選戰和兩岸政策,不會影響選民投票決定,選戰愈關鍵,宋楚瑜效應和經濟議題,才是馬蔡之間的決勝點。
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