2021/10/20  
Academia Sinica raises Taiwan’s GDP growth forecast to 5.05% in 2021 (2021/07/28)
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  • 英文 English 
    Academia Sinica raises Taiwan’s GDP growth forecast to 5.05% in 2021 (2021/07/28)

    Academia Sinica has raised its GDP growth forecast for Taiwan from 4.24% to 5.05%. That's in line with other major domestic think tanks, which have raised their forecasts based on growth in global demand for Taiwanese products.
    Although experts at Academia Sinica see strong momentum ahead for exports, they say the pandemic will dampen domestic consumer spending.

    Ray Chou
    Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica
    We predict that in 2021, GDP growth will reach 5.05%.

    Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Taiwan’s economy this year, projecting growth of 6.6%. The Academia Sinica also said it’s feeling positive, as it raised its economic growth forecast for the year.

    Ray Chou
    Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica
    Returning Taiwanese investment and developments in 5G, in both the new and old economies, are both vigorous drivers for growth. In addition, international trade is continuing to rise and scale new heights. Supported by the teleworking economy, orders for tech products and optical instruments have risen 40%.

    Taiwan exports remain strong, rising for the 12th consecutive month in June. However, domestic demand has softened under the pandemic. Academia Sinica lowered its projection for consumer spending growth, taking it from 4.17% to 2.05%. In June, retail revenue fell by 13.3%, the biggest drop since 2000.

    Huang Chin-Shing
    Academia Sinica vice president
    After the COVID outbreak in mid-May, the government instated the Level 3 COVID alert, banning dining-in at restaurants. People went out less, which had a considerable impact on domestic demand. It caused furlough numbers to climb.

    Ray Chou
    Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica
    I think that, the sooner stimulus vouchers are handed out, the better. Many industries have been dealt a huge blow. As for how much should be issued in vouchers, I think that, as far as the state coffers allow, the more, the better.

    But experts say that before vouchers are issued, aid should go first to hard-hit industries, to warm up Taiwan’s domestic demand.
    中文 Chinese  
    看好景氣增溫 中研院:台2021年GDP上修至5.05%

    台灣從五月中開始,疫情大爆發,衝擊國內各產業,但出口投資、股市金融卻是強強滾,使得許多國外經濟預測機構都看好台灣2021年的全年GDP,可達到6.6%,而且中研院今天也公布最新預測,將今年經濟成長率從4.24%上修到5.05%。

    [[中研院經濟研究所研究員 周雨田]]
    “我們預測在2021年,這個全年GDP,會達到5.05%”

    大摩看好台灣經濟發展,預測我國2021年GDP可達6.6%,中研院緊接著也發布好消息,上修全年經濟成長率。

    [[中研院經濟研究所研究員 周雨田]]
    “台商回流,還有5G的發展,在電子和傳統產業,都有旺盛的成長,另外這個進出口的貿易持續的揚升,屢創新高,受到遠距商機的影響,這個電子產品、光學儀器,接單成長4成”

    我國6月出口數字連12紅,顯示外銷強強滾,但內需受到疫情衝擊,消費成長率預測從4.17%,下修至2.05%,零售業光是6月營業額就衰退13.3%,是2000年以來,最大減幅。

    [[中研院副院長 黃進興]]
    “我國五月中旬疫情爆發,實施全國三級疫情警戒,餐廳禁止內用,民眾減少外出,衝擊我國內需甚鉅,導致無薪假人數攀升”

    [[中研院經濟研究所研究員 周雨田]]
    “個人我是覺得,(振興券)是越早發越好,很多的產業受到非常大的衝擊,這個金額要多少,我覺得在財政的狀況許可之內,當然是越多越好”

    專家認為,優先紓困遭重創的產業,再來發振興券,才能讓冷颼颼的內需市場有回溫的機會。
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